After the Black Death, Part 1

Although the cause of the Black Death has been questioned, what we know as the Bubonic Plague is the likeliest culprit, causing widespread mortality throughout Europe, killing as much as one-third of the population over just a few years (1347-1350).

This enormous demographic shift caused chaos on a scale hitherto unknown.

National estimates of mortality for England, where the evidence is fullest, range from five percent, to 23.6 percent among aristocrats holding land from the king, to forty to forty—five percent of the kingdom’s clergy, to over sixty percent in a recent estimate. The picture for the continent likewise is varied. Regional mortality in Languedoc (France) was forty to fifty percent while sixty to eighty percent of Tuscans (Italy) perished. Urban death rates were mostly higher but no less disparate, e.g., half in Orvieto (Italy), Siena (Italy), and Volterra (Italy), fifty to sixty—six percent in Hamburg (Germany), fifty—eight to sixty—eight percent in Perpignan (France), sixty percent for Barcelona’s (Spain) clerical population, and seventy percent in Bremen (Germany). [link]

What was the impact of the loss of population? We don't have census data, but there are records that survive from monasteries and landowners (lords) who did keep track of their finances.

...in England ... the immediate impact was to lower real wages for both unskilled and skilled workers by about 20% over the next two years. Estimated per capita GDP decreased from 1348 to 1349 by 6%. Similarly, in Spain, where the Black Death also arrived in 1348, real wages were 9% lower in 1350 and estimated per capita GDP decreased by 3.3%. [link]

Once the Black Death had passed and recovery began, wages started to rise for agricultural laborers (by far the majority of the population was agricultural, working lands for a lord). A landowner in need of workers could offer higher wages out of desperation, causing nearby landowners who offered less to lose their labor force. Laws called the Statute of Laborers were passed in England following the Black Death that required peasants to stay in one place, but the fact that these laws were passed every few years tells us that no one was actually following the law.

Not all wages rose. Those in the building trade found the demand for new construction at a historic ebb, so wages for laborers in that field were low.

We'll talk more tomorrow, especially about how prices skyrocketed.